Good Grief! Predictions For Utah’s Winter Already Starting

We are right in the thick of summer with the long, hot days, Red Flag warnings, a somewhat busy wildfire season, and lots of outdoor activity. But sooner than you think, the seasons will change. And there are already people out there making predictions and forecasts for the upcoming winter here in Utah.

Now, for those in Utah's Dix....er, lower Washington County, winter is a real snooze fest where the good times continue to roll. But for the rest of the state, winter can present some challenges.

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We won't get the official prediction from The Old Farmers' Almanac until around Labor Day, but they have given a hint as to what may be headed this way come winter.

Last winter, we had a good amount of moisture, though nothing like the year before. But it also wasn't all that cold. That is, in part, attributable to the El Nińo pattern effecting us last year. But, according to early research from the Old Farmers' Almanac, that could change this year. From their findings:

El Niño is the warm phase, while La Niña tends to be cooler. We’re expecting a neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation or possibly even a La Niña this winter, following a strong El Niño last year. At the same time, we’re anticipating a warm Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and a cool Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We’re also watching equatorial stratospheric winds known as the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Combinations of these factors can also cause the polar vortex to drop added flashes of cold into North America.

Well, before you start worrying about the dreaded polar vortex, a couple of reminders. We still have a lot of summer to go and these are just guesses at this point.

That second point is borne out by the Climate Prediction Center. They have released their outlook for the months of December, January, and February.

As you can see, they are saying that we are leaning towards below normal seasonal precipitation, and if that is the case that could impact our drought condition here in Utah.

But by this map you can see that the Climate Prediction Center says we have equal chances of seasonal temperature. You might think that means we will have near normal temperatures for the season, but what it really means is that we have an equal chance of above or below normal temperatures. In other words, they don't know.

It's good to look ahead and prepare. And I know there are some who have already started and even finished their Christmas shopping (who are you people?). But for me, I think there are a lot of the lazy days of summer to still be enjoyed. I'll deal with the polar vortex later. Much later.