Old Farmer’s Almanac Misses The Mark On Utah Winter Predictions

I should go into weather forecasting, because I can be wrong as much as anyone else.

Groundhogs Day has come and gone, and no matter what Punxsutawney Phil, or your preferred choice weather forecasting animals says, we are halfway through the winter of 2025-2026. So has the winter stacked up to what long range forecasters were saying?

Well, yes and no.

You may have seen the winter predictions from the Old Farmers Almanac, and, at least to this point, it seems they have missed the mark.

Warmer Yes, Wetter No...At Least So Far

As of early February 2026, actual winter conditions in much of the Intermountain West have diverged notably from the Almanac’s forecast. The publication predicted milder-than-normal temperatures with slightly above-normal precipitation and mixed snowfall — below normal in the north and above normal in the south with the snowiest periods in late January and early February according to its regional outlook.

The milder-than-normal temperature forecast seems to be spot on, as we have not had any significant period of bone chilling cold temperatures to this point.

However, the slightly above-normal prediction for precipitation hasn't materialized a yet. Snowfall totals have been below normal at many locations — for example Salt Lake City saw virtually no measurable snow in January, a rare occurrence not typical for the region’s winter pattern.

And further south here in southern Utah, there has not been much, if any, snow to shovel off our walks and driveways.

But, the almanac wasn't the only ones making predictions for the winter. The folks over at the Climate Prediction Center seemed to be closer to forecasting what our winter would be like.

The last of November, they released their seasonal outlook for December, January and February, and for that time period, they indicated that temperatures for the season had a better chance of being above normal, which so far has been the case. As far as precipitation goes, the Climate Prediction Center made an essential no forecast by saying that Utah had an equal chance of above or below or normal precipitation. So far, we'll go with the below normal prediction.

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So, what does all this mean? Beats me. But this much I will say. We are only a little more than halfway through winter, and there is still plenty of opportunity for more precipitation. So I'm not writing of the winter just yet.

Besides, there is another indication that we may be getting more moisture. The Old Farmers Almanac has issued their forecast for the Spring 2026, and, according to that, Utah will be warm and dry. If that prediction proves to be as accurate as the one they gave us for winter, we might want to start filling sandbags.