Brace Yourself! This Winter Is Going To Be….

Not even two weeks into fall, there's been a lot of buzz lately as to when things are going to get cold in our area, as in when we might see our first frost, and even when some of the higher elevations might start to see some snow.

Well, to answer the last first, one of the highest locations in southern Utah has already seen a light dusting of snow, that being on the peaks above Brian Head on September 20^th.

As to the matter of when our first frost may happen, the Old Farmers Almanac has said that the first frost in Cedar City was supposed to be September 25th, or at least they say that was a 30% probability.

Well, not to throw cold water (or perhaps in this case warm water) on those who can't wait for the frosty days to come, the Climate Prediction Center says we may be waiting awhile for the frost to form on the pumpkins.

At the end of September, they released the 30 day outlook for the the country, and if (and this is a big if) their forecast is correct, frosty weather may not be coming our way in October.

As you can see in the map, our region is in the “likely above” probability of temperatures being warmer than normal. For Cedar City, the normal daily high temperature for October is 66.1°, the normal daily low temperature is 36.0°. The overall mean temperature in Cedar for October is 51.1°. It also doesn't appear that we will be getting a lot of rain or snow in October.

So if the Climate Prediction Center turns out to be right, the first frosty day in the higher valleys of southern Utah may still be a few weeks away. Or it's weather in southern Utah, so it could happen tonight.

Some have also been talking about the Almanac's forecast for what the winter of 2024-2025 will look like in our region. In the prognostication, the Almanac says our region will be “mild and snowy.”

Yet the Climate Prediction Center has a slightly different take. Looking at their forecast (ie best guess) for the three months of November, December and January, they say that we are “leaning above” the probability of above normal temperatures, but “leaning below” as far as seasonal precipitation.

I suppose it's fun to speculate, and getting prepared for the changing seasons is a good idea. For example, have you checked your furnace? Changed the furnace filter? How's your wood supply if you use a fireplace or wood stove to help with heating? Have you checked and cleaned your chimney? And make sure to have your outside faucets and hoses ready for winter, because warm October or not, it will get here.

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Now, here's what you've been waiting for. Based on decades of experience here in southern Utah, living in one of the higher valleys of the region, I'm ready to make my prediction for the winter of 2024-2025....next April.